The K7RA Solar Update

02/14/2020

There were no sunspots over this reporting week, February 6-12. Average daily solar flux declined over one point to 71.1. Average planetary A index increased from 6.7 to 8.3.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 70 on February 14-21, 73 on February 22, 74 on February 23-29, 72 on March 1-3, 71 on March 4-11, 72 on March 12-18, 73 on March 19-20, 74 on March 21-27, and 72 on March 28-29.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 14-17, 8 on February 18-20, 5 on February 21-24, 10 on February 25-26, 5 on February 27-29, 8 on March 1-3, 5 on March 4-22, 10 on March 23-24, 5 on March 25-27, and 8 on March 28-29.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 14 until March 18, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be
Quiet on: February 15-16, 20-23, March
Quiet to unsettled on: February 14, 19, 24, 28, March 1-4, 7-11
Quiet to active on: February (17-18, 27, 29), March 6
Unsettled to active on: (February 25-26, March 5)
active to disturbed: none predicted!

Solar wind will intensify on February (14-15, 18-20, 27,) 28 (-29,) March (3,) 4-5, (6-10,) 11

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

Ken, N4SO, writes from Alabama’s Gulf Coast, “On 17 meters and the digital mode FT8, the band is open all day to Brazil, Argentina, Italy, Spain, Poland, and European Russia. (This is only a sampling of countries from the first hour, Saturday morning on or about 1200 UTC.) This propagation continues all day to South America and all parts of Europe. These openings are every day with openings also to Japan and to Philippines.

“Seventeen meters is one of the best bands for Europe with continuous signals during the daytime. It is also one of the best bands for Japan starting at about 2300 UTC. This propagation is also reliable every day.”

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for February 6 through 12, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 71.3, 70.8, 72, 70.6, 70.2, 71.1, and 71.6, with a mean of 71.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 15, 15, 6, 7, 5, 6, and 4, with a mean of 8.3. Middle latitude A index was 13, 11, 4, 5, 4, 6, and 4, with a mean of 6.7.

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