THe K7RA Solar Update

06/19/2020

We just experienced a nearly two-week period of sunspots appearing every day.

It’s been quite some time since we’ve witnessed a continuous string of sunspot activity such as what we’ve experienced over the past two weeks. Back on January 24 through February 1, 2020 were nine consecutive days with sunspot activity, but to find any longer period of sunspot appearances requires a look back to May 3-18 of 2019. Perhaps this is an indication we’ve now moved past the sunspot minimum. You can access these older records via ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/.

Average daily sunspot number for this reporting week (June 11-17) was 7.9, down from 14 over the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux slipped from 71.3 to 70.

Planetary A index went from 5.1 to 3.9, and average middle latitude A index changed from 6.1 to 4.9.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 70 on June 19-26, then 68 on June 27 through August 2.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, and nothing other than 5, every day over the next 45 days, from June 19 through August 2.

Regular followers of solar flux and planetary A-index predictions may find the forecast from June 17 amusing. None of it is correct. See it at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/061745DF.txt. I alerted NOAA, and it was fixed in the following day’s forecast.

 

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 19 until July 14, 2020 from OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be…

quiet on: June 22-24, 29-30, July 1-3, 8-10

quiet to unsettled on: June 19 -21, 27-28, July 7, 11, 13-14

quiet to active on: (June 25-26, July 4-6, 12)

unsettled to active on: not predicted

active to disturbed: not predicted

Solar wind will intensify on: June (26-30,) July 4-7

Remarks:

– Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

– The predictability of changes remains lower as there are very few

indications.

 

Ken Brown, N4SO, is enjoying using the map at pskreporter.info as a propagation tool. “With the PSKreporter map set for 21 MHz, FT8 mode, call sign N4SO with the time set for last hour, do I have propagation to China, Japan or Taiwan between 2100 to 2200 UTC?

“The map shows that yes, I do have spots in the FT8 mode, from my CQ and working a station a few minutes ago from a couple of stations in China, multiple stations in Japan, and one in Taiwan, as seen on the display map on the right side of the image. It shows a path to China when I do not have decoding from any Chinese stations in the FT8 mode on 21.074 MHz from the software. The other spots on the PSK map are also mine from previous transmissions.”

 

Michael, W6MVT, in Upland, California wrote, “A most amazing evening here on the west coast, as ten meters was open and pretty strong to most of the country. Along with another station I had a chance to work ten stations leapfrogging all the way to the east coast. The bad news: I had to be reminded to be a courteous operator and not hog the calling frequency. A good reminder while carried away in the heat of the QSO moment.”

I will assume he was using FT8, but this is a good time to remind readers, when sending in reports, don’t forget important details, such as the mode you were using.

 

Here is an interesting article about the Solar Orbiter: https://bit.ly/2BkzZIc

 

On Monday Ken Brown, N4SO, sent this report on FT8 on 15 meters:

21.074 MHZ

Digital mode FT8

“Early morning propagation to Asia on 21 MHz is now consistent
with end of decoding signals averaging local time 2:30 AM (0730 UTC).
I have Japan and this Indonesia station for example.

“072600 -16  0.3 1442 ~  CQ YG9WKB PI88     Indonesia

Also, early in the evening, local time 9 PM (0200 UTC), there is
propagation on 21 MHz on a path to Virginia (WZ4K), Michigan (W2GLD)
extending all the way to Asiatic Russia and RV0AR, Pavel in Sosnovoborsk, Russia. This station was easily worked at 0248 UTC.

“024800 -16  0.1 1121 ~  N4SO RV0AR R-18”


For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for June 11 through 17, 2020 were 11, 11, 11, 11, 11, 0, and 0, with a mean of 7.9. 10.7 cm flux was 71.5, 70.5, 69.4, 70.2, 70.4, 69.3, and 68.8, with a mean of 70. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 2, 4, 5, and 5, with a mean of 3.9. Middle latitude A index was 4, 6, 4, 3, 5, 7, and 5, with a mean of 4.9.

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